Olympic glory forecast
Wednesday 3 August 2016
Great Britain will finish the Rio Olympics with 51 medals, putting them third in the table, sport analysts have predicted.
The team from the Centre for Sports Business at the University of Salford and the University of Liverpool crunched the numbers based on statistical modelling. They predict USA to top the medal table with 99 medals, China to claim 90 and Team GB next, ahead of Russia and Australia.
In 2012 Team GB won 65 medals, including 29 golds, but were boosted by hosting the games. Country medal forecasts are based on statistical modelling of medal totals since 1992 which takes into account;
- past medal performance
- population
- income level
- political system
- hosting effects (which extend to the Games before and after the hosting Games)
Events surrounding Russian participation in the games could throw some of their predictions, the experts said. These predictions take into account the banning of track and field athletes, but not other sports.
Professor Ian McHale, of the University of Salford, added: “The team’s forecasts for Beijing 2008, were the most successful of any international forecasting group- it was the only group to call correctly the surge in medals for Great Britain.
“Our forecasts for London 2012 were less accurate, mainly because it severely underestimated the increase in medals won by Russia. In retrospect, this is likely to have been because the forecasts could not foresee that Russia would gain extra medals through new techniques for doping.
“They are likely to be affected again if more Russians are banned from competing.
“Great Britain meanwhile is forecast to win 51 medals, lower than in 2012 but still above its long-term expected position in the medals table: past hosts have always shown a positive legacy effect for the next Games after hosting.”
The forecasts could also be interpreted as benchmarks: they indicate how many medals a country might reasonably be expected to win on the basis of how well it did in the past and its size and standard of living. Countries which exceed the forecast could be said to have improved since 2012 and those which fall short could be regarded as having lost ground since 2012.
The top ten:
1. USA- 99 medals
2. China- 90 medals
3. Great Britain- 51 medals
4. Russia- 42 medals
5. Australia 37 medals
6. Germany- 36 medals
7. Japan- 31 medals
8. France- 30 medals
9. Italy- 26 medals
10=. Netherlands- 20 medals
10=. Spain- 20 medals
Find out more
Sam Wood
0161 295 5361
Related news
Energy House plays a role in the launch of UK energy efficiency campaign #missingpiece
Tuesday 8 October 2019
The University of Salford’s Energy House has been involved in the launch of a campaign driven by Smart Energy GB and the Energy Saving Trust promoting national energy efficiency initiatives.
Special "Exceptional Contribution" Prize awarded to Martin Bull
Monday 7 October 2019
Since finishing a period of secondment from the University as Director of Europe's largest political science organisation, European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR), Martin Bull, Politics Professor, has been awarded a Special ‘Exceptional Contribution’ Prize.