Brexit and the North: One year on
Friday 23 June 2017
EXPERTS from the University of Salford Business School take a look at what Brexit could mean for Manchester and the North West region as a whole, 12 months after the vote to leave the EU and as negotiations to do that start in Brussels.
Dr Gordon Fletcher, business and retail expert at the University of Salford business school
“The big impact of Brexit has very much been about people. For some this has been the wake up call to apply for British citizenship, for others it has been a time to consider opportunities in other countries. Both of these options are being considered by people with European and other passports. For businesses - particularly in the technology arena - this is now revealing itself as a brain drain or increasing the difficulty of recruiting new employees with the right skill sets. The longer term threat will be the loss of major technology businesses to other locations.
“It is still relatively early to see if there is a brain-drain, a drain of manual workers or both. There are indications that there has been a reduction in overall immigration numbers from Europe but there have also been increases from some Eastern European countries. Greater Manchester's increasing importance as a hub for start-ups and as a technology powerhouse will mean that a post-Brexit brain drain will be felt differently than elsewhere in the UK. The strong networks and inherently international collaborative nature of start-ups and technology businesses will create useful buffers.
“The shifting focus of technology development and particularly the decreasing need for day-to-day physical co-location offers some hope for business after 2019. However, to see positive benefits for Greater Manchester means that the business ecosystem must stand up internationally as a great place to engage with - and irrespective of the final Brexit negotiations. If the right environment is encouraged and in place, local entrepreneurs and those who future proof their skill sets should still be able to represent a force on a global stage - and this success will be to the benefit of everyone in the Greater Manchester region.”
Dr Mohammad Amjad, expert in International Strategy, University of Salford Business School
“The main impact on businesses is that of rationalisation and uncertainty in Greater Manchester since the Brexit vote last year. There is clear hesitation among businesses and investment is being held back in the current climate. This is evident in the legal industry and the higher education sector as well. Recently, there are two large legal services have started making arrangements to rationalise and lay off any extra staff in Greater Manchester.
“There is already marginal reduction in legal cases involving EU nationals. Similarly, there is increasing awareness in the higher education sector that EU student applications are reducing amid uncertainty over fees and living rights. Universities are already looking to lower operational costs by looking towards junior academics as evidenced from recently announced layoffs by the University of Manchester. The construction industry is already cautious and estimates involving EU nationals in modern housing projects have been reviewed and revised.
“The trends are similar in some ways though the impact on financial services is more pronounced in London, Leeds and Edinburgh due to heavier reliance proportionally when compared with other regions of the UK. Greater Manchester has shown more resilience thus far in terms of economic output but signs are that increasingly businesses are likely to continue the rationalisation over the next year to respond to the final Brexit deal. Greater Manchester is likely to negotiate strongly on retaining the best brains in the fields of Sciences, Law and Higher Education as compared to some other regions in the UK.
“Well, this depends on how you view things. Is the glass half full or half empty after the actual Brexit deal? On one hand, it will throw challenges of attracting and retaining bright minds from the EU, but on the other hand it will push the businesses to explore trade and partnership potential in strategic markets such as China, South Korea, India, South America and Western Africa. This will also enable businesses to seriously evaluate their global and strategic competencies and in the longer term, keeping aside the obvious jolt of treating the EU markets and EU nationals differently, it could serve businesses well in terms of new market explorations and improved products and services. There is more drama expected to come after the UK elections and actual negotiated Brexit deal, so we will need to wait a bit more to see behind the storm.”
Find out more
Sam Wood
0161 295 5361
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