Could China break world transfer record?
Friday 16 June 2017
ON MONDAY the Chinese football transfer window opens, with Premier League clubs braced for interest in some of their key players.
Simon Chadwick, Professor of sports enterprise at the University of Salford looks at what impact the ambitions of Chinese clubs could have.
Simon said: "This coming Chinese transfer window is likely to be an intriguing one.
"The last transfer window earlier this year was somewhat dampened by the state’s overnight introduction of its new 3+1 rule, which replaced the exiting 4+1 rule. This, combined with government controls on outward capital flows, moderated the signing of overseas players.
"As if to pre-empt the summer’s window, China’s government has just introduced a further new measure. During the summer, a 100% player tax will now be in place for any loss-making clubs that attempt to sign overseas players. Any clubs incurring this tax will have to make the sum payable to a football development fund in China. In addition, Super League clubs are now required to field as many Chinese under-23 players as they do foreign players in their starting elevens.
"As such, it could be that this transfer window is the quietest in China over the last two years.
"However, the reported sales of European football clubs, such as Southampton, and the recent arrival of Italian coach Fabio Capello at Jiangsu Suning suggests that the football market remains buoyant, if a little more cautious than 12 months ago.
"As such, we should not expect this transfer window to be a frenzy of player transfer activity. However, there are still likely to be some high-profile names heading to China.
"It is conceivable that we may see the ‘paper’ world player transfer record being broken. That is, a £45 million transfer with the new tax added in (£45 million), would break the record fee paid for a player (following Paul Pogba’s transfer to Manchester United last summer). Most clubs will either be unable to pay this or to countenance paying such an amount of tax. However, there are some incredibly wealthy Chinese business people who may not baulk at such a fee.
"It is also likely that we will see several clubs creatively trying to avoid the new tax rate by, for example, signing players in long-term loan deals. Already, rumours are circulating that Diego Costa may be heading to China on such a deal.
"Unfortunately for China and its clubs however, it could be that many teams will have to look towards signing lower value players, which may lead to stereotypes of the CSL being a retirement home for aging western players emerging again.
"Off-he-field, it is worth looking out for significantly managerial moves. Capello’s arrival in China follows that of others such as Vilas Boas. High profile managerial talent is not subject to the same control as players, hence the summer’s biggest action could be in the dugout. Indeed, rumours are already circulating that CSL clubs are targeting some of European football’s top managerial and coaching talent.
"In summary, this summer in the CSL is unlikely to be as explosive or sensational as last summer. However, there will still be plenty of action, and lots to talk about among a growing number of China football observers."
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Sam Wood
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