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SAM’s mid-season football review

Thursday 12 January 2017

Chelsea have a 64% of winning the league, Hull look doomed to relegation and Bournemouth have been the luckiest team so far this season, so says a machine which predicts football results.

The Sports Analytics Machine (SAM), developed by Professor Ian McHale and his team at the University of Salford, has crunched the numbers from the season so far. SAM simulated the rest of the season one million times to find the likely finishing position of each team in the league.

SAM uses dozens of player stats such as dribbles, tackles, passes, shots etc and their locations on the pitch to come up with its predicted scorelines. It also analyses the performances of players and teams.

Unsurprisingly Chelsea are favourites to claim the title in May, with Tottenham in second place and Liverpool in third, both with around a 10% chance of winning the league. Manchester City and Arsenal come next. Whilst Manchester United have only a 0.6% chance of winning the league.

At the bottom of the table Hull, who recently sacked manager Mike Phelan, have a 97.2% chance of going down. Swansea and Sunderland both have more than a 50% chance of the drop, while Crystal Palace have a 37% chance of relegation.

Bournemouth are the luckiest team as their performance statistics and the quality of the chances they create, suggest they should be five places lower than they are in the actual table.

The most effective player this season so far has been Eden Hazard of Chelsea, followed by Alexis Sanchez and Paul Pogba. Perhaps surprisingly Nicolas Otamendi is Manchester City’s best player so far and the fourth best in the league overall, followed by Diego Costa and Roberto Firminio.

Professor McHale said: “There may be a few surprises in these stats and there are some interesting points to highlight. Before Tottenham beat Chelsea last week, Chelsea had a 74% league wining chance and Tottenham only about 5%, so that one result made a huge difference in making the league more exciting.

“Some may think that Man Utd have been given a low chance of wining the league, but they need to win most of their games for the rest of the season and hope five other teams slip up, which would seem to be unlikely.

“The team of the season may cause some debate but these are all players who have consistently contributed to their teams and made a real difference in terms of the points their teams have won.”

SAM’s team of the season so far:

Goalkeeper:       Jordan Pickford Sunderland

Right back: Kyle Walker Tottenham

Left back: James Milner Liverpool

Centre back:      Nicolas Otamendi Man City

Centre Back:      Virgil van Dijk Southampton

Midfield: Paul Pogba Man Utd

Midfield: Kevin De Brunye Man City

Midfield: Christian Eriksen Tottenham

Attack: Edin Hazard Chelsea

Attack: Alexis Sanchez Aresenal

Attack: Diego Costa Chelsea

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Sam Wood

0161 295 5361