Has the Black Friday bubble burst?
Friday 25 November 2016
Dr Gordon Fletcher, retail expert at the University of Salford, comments on the Black Friday sales and says the day may be losing its impact.
He said: “As Black Friday began email inboxes around the UK began to groan with the variety of offers and announcements enticing consumers to participate in the “event”. Airline seats, sportswear, swimwear, underwear, airport car parking, 3D printers and books are a small sample of the sheer volume of items on offer as UK retailers collectively attempt to generate a sense of excitement and hope we will all reach for our debit and credit cards.
“Data from the Office for National Statistics for Internet Retail Sales suggests that we have also been increasingly anticipating and preparing for this late November event. Between 2011 and 2015 internet retail sales in August have regularly started to decline against the earlier Summer and Spring months. In the last 3 years this decline has become so evident that it now rivals the traditionally slow month of February.
“However, these trends are set against a background of ever-increasing Internet sales with October 2016 being the first October ever with over £1 billion worth of sales and accounting for 15.1% of all retail. With this volume and value of sales the message is that in 2016 the Black Friday bubble has burst. And it has burst for a variety of reasons. Post-Brexit uncertainties over retail prices have generated different retail priorities this year that overlay more usual buying patterns. Post-Thanksgiving holiday urgency in the US drives the Black Friday event there. In contrast, for some UK retailers Black Friday is now the end-point for longer sales events which effectively diffuse the artificial panic of previous years. The offers from retailers are in many cases also lethargic this year with Argos offering 10%-50% on a relatively small number of items. Amazon’s offers are equally familiar territory.
“However, all of this should not be seen as a victory for “Buy Nothing Day”. The counter-movement event also held on Black Friday. Internet retail sales are at all time high, and the indications for December are that total Internet retail sales could reach £1.25 billion.”
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Sam Wood
0161 295 5361
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