Why Trump could win thanks to social media
Tuesday 8 November 2016
UNIVERSITY of Salford social media expert Richard Dron believes that Trump will win the US election as his influence on sites such as Twitter and Facebook far outstrips Hillary Clinton’s.
And taking lessons from the EU referendum, he believes that gives Trump a huge chance to win.
In a blog published today on the University of Salford Business School website, he writes:
“On social media Trump’s message seems to have more reach than Clinton’s. Is social media echoing the state of one of the most digitally connected nations in the world? The same pattern emerged on social media when we examined the EU Referendum campaigns. The views of Nigel Farage were most influential in shaping the social media conversations whereas David Cameron did not have as much of an audience. In social media analysis we are looking for the sizes of polarised crowds. The more people there are that support a certain side the higher are the chances for them to “win”.
“Clinton’s campaign is concentrating on winning the big states that have won the previous elections; Florida, Colorado and Virginia. But, I don’t think Trump needs to win these to secure his victory. All he needs is to drum home his core messages to unemployed masses in the mid-west states.
“One of the key reasons that leaving the EU was perceived to be so popular is because all things that are “wrong” in the current UK can be fixed with the vote to leave! For example, the shortage of NHS funding resulted in a very popular lie around £350 million per week which would be given to the NHS. This £350million to NHS claim is just one illustrating the hyperbole that the leave campaigners have been ramming through their messaging and had to retract pretty much as soon as they were victorious.
“Trump is doing the same thing for many whose America Dream is already in tatters. Building a wall at the Mexican border is just one of these emotionally charged examples.
“They are ready to cast their vote. Any electorate can be mischievous. Many people in the UK are now showing #Bregret, but at the time of the vote they were alone, anarchists with polling cards. No one sees when people place a vote. It is a very personal thing, and protest and comedy votes are not unheard of or the Loony Party would not exist at all. No rules and anger about broken political systems means people will vote Trump just like they voted to leave the EU. No need for them to agree with him or anything he stands for in fact. Some will vote because they can “stick it to the man””
To read the full blog see the website
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Sam Wood
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